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Sir Jean Paul Turcaud
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Australia Grain - Drought Threatens to Devastate Crop
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AUSTRALIA: May 2, 2005
SYDNEY - Australian wheat and other winter grain crops face possible
devastation on a similar scale to three years ago when the worst drought in
a century struck, industry leaders warned on Friday.
Very dry, hot weather has persisted across much of Australia past
April 25, a rule-of-thumb date when good rain is normally required to set up
good winter crops in this top grain exporting nation.
"There'll be massive reductions," Mal Peters, president of Australia's
largest farmers organisation, the New South Wales Farmers Association, said
of winter crops if good rain did not fall in coming weeks.
Planting of wheat, Australia's premier winter crop, normally begins in
late April and continues through May. Planting can continue through to the
end of June without a loss of yields.
But this will require good rain, which has not fallen for months,
while autumn temperatures have soared to record highs.
At stake are some of the world's leading export crops, shipped mainly
to markets in Asia and the Middle East. Australia is the world's
second-largest exporter of wheat, after the United States, the world's
largest exporter of barley, and the world's second-largest exporter of
canola after Canada.
All are premier winter crops, and all hang in the balance.
"That is potentially a major problem for us if we don't see some
substantial winter breaks in the very near future," Peter Corish, President
of the peak lobby group the National Farmers Federation, said on Friday. "If
we don't see some rain by the middle of June, we could be looking at a very
significant potential drop in grain production, including wheat," he said.
"The potential is there for a situation like 2002 ... We need to see
the breaks in the next couple of months," Corish said.
In 2002, Australia's worst drought in a century slashed wheat
production to 10 million tonnes from 24 million tonnes the year before,
requiring Australia to import the grain from Britain for the first time
since colonial days.
Output of all other crops also plunged. Cattle and sheep slaughterings
rose dramatically. Farm bankruptcies soared.
"Everyone is watching the sky very closely," Corish said.
Better farming techniques have made the April 25 rule-of-thumb less
applicable than in the past, said Grant Beard of the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology.
But wheat growing areas had been hit hard by very hot, dry weather
that persisted through April, he said.
Two-thirds to three-quarters of Australia had less than one-fifth of
the average rainfall for April.
Large parts of the prime eastern and southern grain growing area had
had less than 20 percent of average April rainfall, while elsewhere,
rainfall had been between 20 and 40 percent of normal.
April temperatures also soared to record highs across half to
two-thirds of the country. "It's not just isolated areas, Beard said.
Rainfall broke the 2002 drought in February 2003. But there has not
been a single very wet year since to compensate for it, and some areas have
struggled on with less than average rainfall, he said.
In March, the government unit the Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics (ABARE) forecast a rebound for Australian crops in
the growing year to March 31 2006, with wheat seen rising to 22.6 million
tonnes from 20.4 million, and barley rising to 7.3 million tonnes from 6.5
million.
That was based on assumed normal seasonal conditions.
"We've still got time. But the fact that it is so dry, and the
forecasts are not that encouraging, doesn't give people a lot of
confidence," Corish said.
Story by Michael Byrnes
REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
Forwarded with kind regards to all his friends by :
( Some people unable to learn, it seems ? )
--
Sir Jean-Paul Turcaud
Exploration Geologist
Discoverer & Legal Owner of Telfer, Nifty & Kintyre Mines
The Great Sandy Desert of Australia
Founder of the True Geology
~~Ignorance Is The Cosmic Sin, The One Never Forgiven ! ~~
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mail this story to a friend | Printer friendly version
AUSTRALIA: May 2, 2005
SYDNEY - Australian wheat and other winter grain crops face possible
devastation on a similar scale to three years ago when the worst drought in
a century struck, industry leaders warned on Friday.
Very dry, hot weather has persisted across much of Australia past
April 25, a rule-of-thumb date when good rain is normally required to set up
good winter crops in this top grain exporting nation.
"There'll be massive reductions," Mal Peters, president of Australia's
largest farmers organisation, the New South Wales Farmers Association, said
of winter crops if good rain did not fall in coming weeks.
Planting of wheat, Australia's premier winter crop, normally begins in
late April and continues through May. Planting can continue through to the
end of June without a loss of yields.
But this will require good rain, which has not fallen for months,
while autumn temperatures have soared to record highs.
At stake are some of the world's leading export crops, shipped mainly
to markets in Asia and the Middle East. Australia is the world's
second-largest exporter of wheat, after the United States, the world's
largest exporter of barley, and the world's second-largest exporter of
canola after Canada.
All are premier winter crops, and all hang in the balance.
"That is potentially a major problem for us if we don't see some
substantial winter breaks in the very near future," Peter Corish, President
of the peak lobby group the National Farmers Federation, said on Friday. "If
we don't see some rain by the middle of June, we could be looking at a very
significant potential drop in grain production, including wheat," he said.
"The potential is there for a situation like 2002 ... We need to see
the breaks in the next couple of months," Corish said.
In 2002, Australia's worst drought in a century slashed wheat
production to 10 million tonnes from 24 million tonnes the year before,
requiring Australia to import the grain from Britain for the first time
since colonial days.
Output of all other crops also plunged. Cattle and sheep slaughterings
rose dramatically. Farm bankruptcies soared.
"Everyone is watching the sky very closely," Corish said.
Better farming techniques have made the April 25 rule-of-thumb less
applicable than in the past, said Grant Beard of the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology.
But wheat growing areas had been hit hard by very hot, dry weather
that persisted through April, he said.
Two-thirds to three-quarters of Australia had less than one-fifth of
the average rainfall for April.
Large parts of the prime eastern and southern grain growing area had
had less than 20 percent of average April rainfall, while elsewhere,
rainfall had been between 20 and 40 percent of normal.
April temperatures also soared to record highs across half to
two-thirds of the country. "It's not just isolated areas, Beard said.
Rainfall broke the 2002 drought in February 2003. But there has not
been a single very wet year since to compensate for it, and some areas have
struggled on with less than average rainfall, he said.
In March, the government unit the Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics (ABARE) forecast a rebound for Australian crops in
the growing year to March 31 2006, with wheat seen rising to 22.6 million
tonnes from 20.4 million, and barley rising to 7.3 million tonnes from 6.5
million.
That was based on assumed normal seasonal conditions.
"We've still got time. But the fact that it is so dry, and the
forecasts are not that encouraging, doesn't give people a lot of
confidence," Corish said.
Story by Michael Byrnes
REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
Forwarded with kind regards to all his friends by :
( Some people unable to learn, it seems ? )
--
Sir Jean-Paul Turcaud
Exploration Geologist
Discoverer & Legal Owner of Telfer, Nifty & Kintyre Mines
The Great Sandy Desert of Australia
Founder of the True Geology
~~Ignorance Is The Cosmic Sin, The One Never Forgiven ! ~~