Actuarial Fact: age where a person has an approximately 50% chance of dying in that year is 108...

[Fred Bloggs]

Seems hard to believe when so many people end up with an unlucky coin toss. There\'s something lacking with actuarial statistics. Another interesting factoid is standard deviation of life expectancy is 8 years- and doesn\'t seem to change much. The distribution is skewed so 30% of people end up dying within a std dev less than the mean, and 40% (+) end up dying within an std dev greater. And the longer you live, the greater the chances you will keep living. The reason these statistics are so nutty is because they\'re mindlessly force fitting a purely mathematical model onto a scientific phenomenon without applying any science to it.

Ethicist view:

https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/second-opinions/103426

 

[a a]

On Thursday, 16 March 2023 at 12:49:05 UTC+1, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> Seems hard to believe when so many people end up with an unlucky coin toss. There\'s something lacking with actuarial statistics. Another interesting factoid is standard deviation of life expectancy is 8 years- and doesn\'t seem to change much. The distribution is skewed so 30% of people end up dying within a std dev less than the mean, and 40% (+) end up dying within an std dev greater. And the longer you live, the greater the chances you will keep living. The reason these statistics are so nutty is because they\'re mindlessly force fitting a purely mathematical model onto a scientific phenomenon without applying any science to it.
applied statistics is fake social science to prove anything or everything

 

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Thursday, March 16, 2023 at 11:48:27 PM UTC+11, a a wrote:

On Thursday, 16 March 2023 at 12:49:05 UTC+1, Fred Bloggs wrote:
Seems hard to believe when so many people end up with an unlucky coin toss. There\'s something lacking with actuarial statistics. Another interesting factoid is standard deviation of life expectancy is 8 years- and doesn\'t seem to change much. The distribution is skewed so 30% of people end up dying within a std dev less than the mean, and 40% (+) end up dying within an std dev greater. And the longer you live, the greater the chances you will keep living. The reason these statistics are so nutty is because they\'re mindlessly force fitting a purely mathematical model onto a scientific phenomenon without applying any science to it.

applied statistics is fake social science to prove anything or everything

Statistics isn\'t science. It is a branch of mathematics.

Like any number of branches of mathematics, statistics is exploited by various sciences.

Fred Bloggs wasn\'t saying anything scientific - he was just posting an observation about how the numbers pan out. He wasn\'t trying to prove anything.

What a a was trying to say is even less obvious - the only clear take-away message seems to be that he goes in for mindless abuse, but we already knew he was mindless...

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[a a]

>

Yet one more #veryStupidByLowIQaa post.