About 117 billion members of our species have ever been born on Earth...

F

Fred Bloggs

Guest
Seems like a crazy stretch but I bet it\'s not far off. It also means that about 7% of all the people ever born are alive today. Today is the UN projected date of world population reaching 8 billion. It took a long time to get here, something like 200,000 years, because humans are killed off so easily. Up until fairly recently on the grand scale of things, life expectancy was only about 10 years in the eras they know about for sure. It was all the children dying, and the human race had to compensate by having extra high birth rates and large families. Fossil fuel powered mechanization is responsible for this (mess).

https://www.prb.org/articles/how-many-people-have-ever-lived-on-earth/
 
Fred Bloggs wrote:
Seems like a crazy stretch but I bet it\'s not far off. It also means
that about 7% of all the people ever born are alive today. Today is
the UN projected date of world population reaching 8 billion. It took
a long time to get here, something like 200,000 years, because humans
are killed off so easily. Up until fairly recently on the grand scale
of things, life expectancy was only about 10 years in the eras they
know about for sure. It was all the children dying, and the human
race had to compensate by having extra high birth rates and large
families. Fossil fuel powered mechanization is responsible for this
(mess).

https://www.prb.org/articles/how-many-people-have-ever-lived-on-earth/
Click to expand...

Sagan gave the 10**11 number in an essay back in the \'70s. IIRC he went
on some peroration about how that was about the number of stars in the
galaxy, and about the number of galaxies in the universe.

(Get yer free personal galaxy, yes, Sir, step right up!)

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com
 
On Tue, 15 Nov 2022 13:12:29 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

Seems like a crazy stretch but I bet it\'s not far off. It also means that about 7% of all the people ever born are alive today. Today is the UN projected date of world population reaching 8 billion. It took a long time to get here, something like 200,000 years, because humans are killed off so easily. Up until fairly recently on the grand scale of things, life expectancy was only about 10 years in the eras they know about for sure. It was all the children dying, and the human race had to compensate by having extra high birth rates and large families. Fossil fuel powered mechanization is responsible for this (mess).

https://www.prb.org/articles/how-many-people-have-ever-lived-on-earth/
Click to expand...

Mess?

As countries develop, birth rates drop, often below replacement. We
may never hit 10 billion.
 
On 16/11/2022 03:33, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 15 Nov 2022 13:12:29 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

Seems like a crazy stretch but I bet it\'s not far off. It also means that about 7% of all the people ever born are alive today. Today is the UN projected date of world population reaching 8 billion. It took a long time to get here, something like 200,000 years, because humans are killed off so easily. Up until fairly recently on the grand scale of things, life expectancy was only about 10 years in the eras they know about for sure. It was all the children dying, and the human race had to compensate by having extra high birth rates and large families. Fossil fuel powered mechanization is responsible for this (mess).

https://www.prb.org/articles/how-many-people-have-ever-lived-on-earth/

Mess?

As countries develop, birth rates drop, often below replacement. We
may never hit 10 billion.
Click to expand...

It has been estimated that in the long term the planet can only support
3 billion at anywhere near the standard of living we now expect.

--
Brian Gregory (in England).
 
On Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 10:33:54 PM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 15 Nov 2022 13:12:29 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

Seems like a crazy stretch but I bet it\'s not far off. It also means that about 7% of all the people ever born are alive today. Today is the UN projected date of world population reaching 8 billion. It took a long time to get here, something like 200,000 years, because humans are killed off so easily. Up until fairly recently on the grand scale of things, life expectancy was only about 10 years in the eras they know about for sure. It was all the children dying, and the human race had to compensate by having extra high birth rates and large families. Fossil fuel powered mechanization is responsible for this (mess).

https://www.prb.org/articles/how-many-people-have-ever-lived-on-earth/
Mess?
Click to expand...

If you look at the general topic of machines, they\'re really at the heart of everything.

As countries develop, birth rates drop, often below replacement. We
may never hit 10 billion.
Click to expand...

You obviously subscribe to the \"inexhaustible Earth\" belief. The reality is far from it. The main challenge, if you expect to do anything about it, is to collect an unbelievable amount of data and upping their game by computing the dynamics of resource consumption and pollution instead of just a static snapshot.

Earth Overshoot Day 2022 occurred on July 28th.

A summary of the state of this science:
https://theconversation.com/yes-humans-are-depleting-earths-resources-but-footprint-estimates-dont-tell-the-full-story-100705

The current UN estimate is the global resource use is about 1.7 Earth capacities. Most of this is caused by the material self-indulgent western countries, of course. They say if everyone lived as they do in India, the current consumption could be reduced to about 0.875 Earth capacity. No thanks.
 
On Wed, 16 Nov 2022 07:19:14 +0000, Brian Gregory
<void-invalid-dead-dontuse@email.invalid> wrote:

On 16/11/2022 03:33, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 15 Nov 2022 13:12:29 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

Seems like a crazy stretch but I bet it\'s not far off. It also means that about 7% of all the people ever born are alive today. Today is the UN projected date of world population reaching 8 billion. It took a long time to get here, something like 200,000 years, because humans are killed off so easily. Up until fairly recently on the grand scale of things, life expectancy was only about 10 years in the eras they know about for sure. It was all the children dying, and the human race had to compensate by having extra high birth rates and large families. Fossil fuel powered mechanization is responsible for this (mess).

https://www.prb.org/articles/how-many-people-have-ever-lived-on-earth/

Mess?

As countries develop, birth rates drop, often below replacement. We
may never hit 10 billion.


It has been estimated that in the long term the planet can only support
3 billion at anywhere near the standard of living we now expect.
Click to expand...

Sounds unlikely. Probably greenie anti-human alarmism.

But a few billion, maybe one billion, would be nice. We need a lot
more development in the interim before we can do that.
 
On Wed, 16 Nov 2022 07:06:51 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 10:33:54 PM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:
On Tue, 15 Nov 2022 13:12:29 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

Seems like a crazy stretch but I bet it\'s not far off. It also means that about 7% of all the people ever born are alive today. Today is the UN projected date of world population reaching 8 billion. It took a long time to get here, something like 200,000 years, because humans are killed off so easily. Up until fairly recently on the grand scale of things, life expectancy was only about 10 years in the eras they know about for sure. It was all the children dying, and the human race had to compensate by having extra high birth rates and large families. Fossil fuel powered mechanization is responsible for this (mess).

https://www.prb.org/articles/how-many-people-have-ever-lived-on-earth/
Mess?

If you look at the general topic of machines, they\'re really at the heart of everything.


As countries develop, birth rates drop, often below replacement. We
may never hit 10 billion.

You obviously subscribe to the \"inexhaustible Earth\" belief.
Click to expand...

You make up things you\'d like me to believe, so you can disapprove.
All wrong.

Development and education and peace make people voluntarily reduce
their birth rates. What\'s your alternative?
 
On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 9:25:01 AM UTC-8, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 16 Nov 2022 07:06:51 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 10:33:54 PM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:

As countries develop, birth rates drop, often below replacement. We
may never hit 10 billion.

You obviously subscribe to the \"inexhaustible Earth\" belief.
You make up things you\'d like me to believe, so you can disapprove.
All wrong.

Development and education and peace make people voluntarily reduce
their birth rates. What\'s your alternative?
Click to expand...

The alternative is the boom/bust cycle that Malthusian economics suggests.
It has happened in history, and prehistory, perhaps in addition to \'people
voluntarily reduce\' episodes. We\'re presently trying an international \'voluntarily reduce\'
on greenhouse gas emission.
 
On Wed, 16 Nov 2022 15:38:24 -0800 (PST), whit3rd <whit3rd@gmail.com>
wrote:

On Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at 9:25:01 AM UTC-8, John Larkin wrote:
On Wed, 16 Nov 2022 07:06:51 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:

On Tuesday, November 15, 2022 at 10:33:54 PM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:

As countries develop, birth rates drop, often below replacement. We
may never hit 10 billion.

You obviously subscribe to the \"inexhaustible Earth\" belief.
You make up things you\'d like me to believe, so you can disapprove.
All wrong.

Development and education and peace make people voluntarily reduce
their birth rates. What\'s your alternative?

The alternative is the boom/bust cycle that Malthusian economics suggests.
Click to expand...

I don\'t think that is happening any more. We have tractors and
fertilizers and stuff to grow lots of food. That\'s not going to
change.

The real impediment to peace and prosperity and eventually a lower,
stable population is politics: religious and nationalistic and racist
hostility and crazy people like Putin.

Eventually we will have no races, and everybody will speak American,
but that might take a thousand years.


It has happened in history, and prehistory, perhaps in addition to \'people
voluntarily reduce\' episodes. We\'re presently trying an international \'voluntarily reduce\'
on greenhouse gas emission.
Click to expand...

Life spans keep increasing. We\'re doing something right.
 
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