A coronavirus vaccine probably won't be ready before the end

A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.

Schwan said an antibody test — which can determine whether someone has had COVID-19 and could be launched as early as May — would instead be the key to allowing people to return to normal life.

Some leading researchers are more optimistic that a vaccine could be developed and rolled out this year.

The big pharmaceuticals employ Nobel Laureate grade researchers and know of which they speak.

This Gilbert woman at Jenner Institute of Oxford is kinda laughable:

"Professor Sarah Gilbert, who is leading a team of Oxford University developers working on one, said in the best-case scenario, her team could have a vaccine ready by September."

She's been working on the MERS-CoV vaccine for Saudi Arabia for years with no real results. They're just now entering Phase I human trials. They did attempt to develop a vaccine for camels against the virus- not sure how well that worked for them.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4

We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates, so
do we?

 

[John Doe]

Fortunately, there are a jillion ways for intelligent human beings to
cope, while waiting for an antivirus. We are quickly ramping up
production of personal protective equipment, in addition to finding
other innovative solutions.

Such dire predictions exist only in a vacuum, like between some
posters' ears. The hardest hit areas will be helped by compassionate
intelligent people in less affected areas. Communication is not a
problem.

Never before has the human race been so well-connected, intelligent, and
capable.

 

[John Larkin]

On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 12:34:31 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.

Schwan said an antibody test — which can determine whether someone has had COVID-19 and could be launched as early as May — would instead be the key to allowing people to return to normal life.

Some leading researchers are more optimistic that a vaccine could be developed and rolled out this year.

The big pharmaceuticals employ Nobel Laureate grade researchers and know of which they speak.

This Gilbert woman at Jenner Institute of Oxford is kinda laughable:

"Professor Sarah Gilbert, who is leading a team of Oxford University developers working on one, said in the best-case scenario, her team could have a vaccine ready by September."

She's been working on the MERS-CoV vaccine for Saudi Arabia for years with no real results. They're just now entering Phase I human trials. They did attempt to develop a vaccine for camels against the virus- not sure how well that worked for them.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4

Several sources say that there has never been a successful coronavirus
vaccine for humans. Maybe there wasn't enough incentive to develop
one.

I guess it's not practical to just copy the antibodies. Some day
maybe.






--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

[Ricky C]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates, so
do we?

It mutates virtually every day. The more people it infects, the more mutations. They have listed dozens and dozens of varieties.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

 

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates, so
do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be with us forever.

 

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 6:36:57 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 12:34:31 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.

Schwan said an antibody test — which can determine whether someone has had COVID-19 and could be launched as early as May — would instead be the key to allowing people to return to normal life.

Some leading researchers are more optimistic that a vaccine could be developed and rolled out this year.

The big pharmaceuticals employ Nobel Laureate grade researchers and know of which they speak.

This Gilbert woman at Jenner Institute of Oxford is kinda laughable:

"Professor Sarah Gilbert, who is leading a team of Oxford University developers working on one, said in the best-case scenario, her team could have a vaccine ready by September."

She's been working on the MERS-CoV vaccine for Saudi Arabia for years with no real results. They're just now entering Phase I human trials. They did attempt to develop a vaccine for camels against the virus- not sure how well that worked for them.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4

Several sources say that there has never been a successful coronavirus
vaccine for humans. Maybe there wasn't enough incentive to develop
one.

I guess it's not practical to just copy the antibodies. Some day
maybe.

They have developed one for dogs. Don't take it
https://www.thedailybeast.com/do-not-take-your-dogs-coronavirus-vaccine

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

 

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 6:24:30 PM UTC-4, John Doe wrote:

Fortunately, there are a jillion ways for intelligent human beings to
cope, while waiting for an antivirus. We are quickly ramping up
production of personal protective equipment, in addition to finding
other innovative solutions.

Such dire predictions exist only in a vacuum, like between some
posters' ears. The hardest hit areas will be helped by compassionate
intelligent people in less affected areas. Communication is not a
problem.

Never before has the human race been so well-connected, intelligent, and
capable.

You don't know what you're talking about. It's the same kind of downplay that landed us into this mess in the first place.

 

[Tom Del Rosso]

bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates,
so do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this
similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be
with us forever.

What happened to the Spanish flu? No vaccine. Isn't that with us
forever?

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-22 19:46, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates,
so do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this
similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be
with us forever.

What happened to the Spanish flu? No vaccine. Isn't that with us
forever?

It went away completely except in pigs. All modern swine 'flus are
apparently descended from the 1918 virus. (That may have been when 'flu
first crossed into pigs.)

It was first sequenced from stored tissue samples by Jeffrey
Taubenberger, and subsequently reconstituted as live virus in 2005.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htm

It doesn't seem to have leaked out.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 7:46:38 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:

bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates,
so do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this
similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be
with us forever.

What happened to the Spanish flu? No vaccine. Isn't that with us
forever?

Probably mutated in its animal reservoir to become noninfectious to humans. There may a chance the coronavirus will do the same, since it's predominantly an animal virus with just a very small percentage of the strains infectious to humans. They need to get it out of the human race first though. China will do its best to prevent that from happening.

 

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 8:12:28 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:

On 2020-04-22 19:46, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates,
so do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this
similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be
with us forever.

What happened to the Spanish flu? No vaccine. Isn't that with us
forever?

It went away completely except in pigs. All modern swine 'flus are
apparently descended from the 1918 virus. (That may have been when 'flu
first crossed into pigs.)

It was first sequenced from stored tissue samples by Jeffrey
Taubenberger, and subsequently reconstituted as live virus in 2005.

Something gave it to pigs. I just don't see domesticated pigs as a natural animal reservoir. Whatever happened to it, an animal reservoir was at play.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htm

It doesn't seem to have leaked out.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

[Phil Hobbs]

On 2020-04-22 20:31, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 8:12:28 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-22 19:46, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso
wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready
before the end of 2021, according to the head of the
world's second-largest pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will
not have a vaccine before the end of next year," Severin
Schwan, the CEO of Roche, said on a call with reporters on
Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4




We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one
mutates, so do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If
this similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then
it will be with us forever.

What happened to the Spanish flu? No vaccine. Isn't that with
us forever?

It went away completely except in pigs. All modern swine 'flus
are apparently descended from the 1918 virus. (That may have been
when 'flu first crossed into pigs.)

It was first sequenced from stored tissue samples by Jeffrey
Taubenberger, and subsequently reconstituted as live virus in
2005.

Something gave it to pigs. I just don't see domesticated pigs as a
natural animal reservoir. Whatever happened to it, an animal
reservoir was at play.

If pigs can give it to people, seems like people can give it to pigs.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510

http://electrooptical.net
http://hobbs-eo.com

 

John Doe <always.look@message.header> wrote in
news:r7qg6p$hij$1@dont-email.me:

Never before has the human race been so well-connected,
intelligent, and capable.

Well, minus a few 'segments'.

The true shame is that the obviously not connected nay sayers
cannot be the next set of victims, and only the nay sayers. Now
*that* population control method I can agree with.

Then I can act like Trump, grabbing all the girls by the pussy
looking for the one with that perfect hand full of pussy feel...
I can raid all the nay sayers bank accounts.

I'd leave one small group alive though. Trump. So he could watch
as I NYPD PIG RAPE both his sons in front of him with NYPD broomstick
handles, then shove both of those down the throat of Kushner and
Melania. Toss them all on an immigrant raft and drift it off toward
GITMO.

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 10:14:00 AM UTC+10, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 7:46:38 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates,
so do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this
similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be
with us forever.

What happened to the Spanish flu? No vaccine. Isn't that with us
forever?

Probably mutated in its animal reservoir to become noninfectious to humans. There may a chance the coronavirus will do the same, since it's predominantly an animal virus with just a very small percentage of the strains infectious to humans. They need to get it out of the human race first though. China will do its best to prevent that from happening.

I wonder why Fred thinks that. The Chinese enthusiasm for eating exotic wild animals will probably pick up a few new zoonoses from time to time, but the African enthusiasm for "bush meat" creates exactly the same problem.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 10:14:00 AM UTC+10, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 7:46:38 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates,
so do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this
similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be
with us forever.

What happened to the Spanish flu? No vaccine. Isn't that with us
forever?

Probably mutated in its animal reservoir to become noninfectious to humans. There may a chance the coronavirus will do the same, since it's predominantly an animal virus with just a very small percentage of the strains infectious to humans. They need to get it out of the human race first though. China will do its best to prevent that from happening.

I wonder why Fred thinks that. The Chinese enthusiasm for eating exotic wild animals will probably pick up a few new zoonoses from time to time, but the African enthusiasm for "bush meat" creates exactly the same problem.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 8:36:57 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:

On Wed, 22 Apr 2020 12:34:31 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.

Schwan said an antibody test — which can determine whether someone has had COVID-19 and could be launched as early as May — would instead be the key to allowing people to return to normal life.

Some leading researchers are more optimistic that a vaccine could be developed and rolled out this year.

The big pharmaceuticals employ Nobel Laureate grade researchers and know of which they speak.

This Gilbert woman at Jenner Institute of Oxford is kinda laughable:

"Professor Sarah Gilbert, who is leading a team of Oxford University developers working on one, said in the best-case scenario, her team could have a vaccine ready by September."

She's been working on the MERS-CoV vaccine for Saudi Arabia for years with no real results. They're just now entering Phase I human trials. They did attempt to develop a vaccine for camels against the virus- not sure how well that worked for them.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4

Several sources say that there has never been a successful coronavirus
vaccine for humans. Maybe there wasn't enough incentive to develop
one.

I guess it's not practical to just copy the antibodies. Some day
maybe.

If you were paying attention, you might have noticed that at least one of the options being looked at was planning on using a cut down version of the corona virus spike protein to provoke the immune system into producing an antibody that was active against a range of corona viruses.

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218?etoc
I posted a link to the PNAS news article here last week. Fred Bloggs didn't like it much.

The scheme was originally devised to produce an anti-SARS vaccine, but funding dried up after SARS went away. The investigators think that they ought to tweak the protein fragment to match Covid-19 rather than SARS but seemed to think that the anti-SARS vaccine would be active enough against Covid-19 to be worth using in the meantime.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 10:32:03 AM UTC+10, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 8:12:28 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-22 19:46, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates,
so do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this
similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be
with us forever.

What happened to the Spanish flu? No vaccine. Isn't that with us
forever?

It went away completely except in pigs. All modern swine 'flus are
apparently descended from the 1918 virus. (That may have been when 'flu
first crossed into pigs.)

It was first sequenced from stored tissue samples by Jeffrey
Taubenberger, and subsequently reconstituted as live virus in 2005.

Something gave it to pigs. I just don't see domesticated pigs as a natural animal reservoir. Whatever happened to it, an animal reservoir was at play.

If Fred knew a little more about the subject he'd be aware that influenza comes from ducks, in the same way that Covid-19 comes from bats.

He'd also be aware that the Chinese habit of rearing ducks and pigs on the same small farms has meant that there are influenza viruses that infect pigs, and some of them infect humans as well - hence swine flu.

Phil Hobbs suggestion that it went from us to pigs does is probably wrong. Pigs probably had it first.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htm

It doesn't seem to have leaked out.

For which we have to be grateful.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Bill Sloman]

On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 9:00:05 AM UTC+10, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates, so
do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be with us forever.

There are schemes to develop an anti-influenza vaccine which would be active against a range of influenza viruses.

As with the proposed anti-SARS vaccine

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/15/8218?etoc
they do depend on creating a protein fragment that looks like the working end of the cell-wall penetrating protein - the influenza version of the corona virus "spike" protein. Nobody seems to have had any success yet, but the approach does seem to be under active investigation.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

 

[Ricky C]

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 8:32:03 PM UTC-4, bloggs.fre...@gmail.com wrote:

On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 8:12:28 PM UTC-4, Phil Hobbs wrote:
On 2020-04-22 19:46, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
On Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 5:34:01 PM UTC-4, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
A coronavirus vaccine will "most likely" not be ready before the end
of 2021, according to the head of the world's second-largest
pharmaceutical company.

"I'm afraid that the most likely scenario is that we will not have a
vaccine before the end of next year," Severin Schwan, the CEO of
Roche, said on a call with reporters on Wednesday.
[...]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-probably-wont-ready-before-end-2021-roche-2020-4


We never have vaccines for common colds or AIDS because those mutate
every few weeks. We should know by now how often this one mutates,
so do we?

They haven't even developed a universal influenza vaccine. If this
similarly mutates into a bunch of strains each year, then it will be
with us forever.

What happened to the Spanish flu? No vaccine. Isn't that with us
forever?

It went away completely except in pigs. All modern swine 'flus are
apparently descended from the 1918 virus. (That may have been when 'flu
first crossed into pigs.)

It was first sequenced from stored tissue samples by Jeffrey
Taubenberger, and subsequently reconstituted as live virus in 2005.

Something gave it to pigs. I just don't see domesticated pigs as a natural animal reservoir. Whatever happened to it, an animal reservoir was at play.

What? Pigs and virtually any captive livestock raised in huge numbers is a viral breeding ground. Why would you think domesticated pigs would not be a reservoir for diseases that can cross into humans?

You guys talk about the disease mutating like it was a single organism. It's a population where the fittest survive. It would not have mutated into a non-infectious form because that would make it die out. That is the opposite of a selective pressure in humans!!! Or I should say the selective pressure would eradicate a non-infectious form by definition.

The Spanish Flu most likely went away because it did wash over humanity giving immunity to a great many. They estimate a third of the world's population was infected. Enough so the R0 value was not sufficient to propagate consistently and died off.

If there is no vaccine and we don't eliminate COVID-19 by isolating adequately, that is what we are looking at, this disease washing over the world a many millions dying.

The thing with the isolation is that if it is done in sufficiently it can wipe out the disease in a short time. If not done sufficiently it's like putting a patient on life support stretching out the agony.

I don't want to count on this disease walking away on its own.

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Rick C.

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